The luxury watch secondary market has endured eleven consecutive quarters of price correction since its speculative peak in May 2022. Resale prices dropped a further 5.7% in 2024 alone — driven largely by oversupply, as buyers who had purchased watches purely as short-term investments began selling into a market already softened by economic uncertainty and higher interest rates. As 2026 unfolds, prices remain subdued, and analysts suggest the secondary market has not yet found a definitive floor.
For the patient, long-term investor, this environment is not a deterrent — it is an opportunity. The correction has separated genuine collector demand from speculative noise, and the references that continue to command strong premiums are doing so on the strength of their fundamentals alone: brand prestige, controlled production, and the kind of global recognition that transcends any single market cycle.
The numbers bear this out. The so-called Big Three — Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet — still account for approximately 64% of all secondary market value worldwide. According to data from early 2026, 56% of Rolex models and 63% of Audemars Piguet models are actively selling above their original retail prices. Around 38% of Patek Philippe's catalogue is doing the same. These are not averages inflated by a handful of outliers; they represent the structural depth of demand for watches that the market has simply decided it cannot get enough of.
The reason is straightforward: all three manufactures manage production with extraordinary discipline. Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet have never meaningfully increased output in response to demand. That deliberate scarcity keeps authorised dealer waitlists measured in years, not months — which means the secondary market remains the only realistic route to ownership for most buyers, and sellers have permanent pricing leverage as a result. Social media has amplified this effect, turning certain dial colours and limited references into cultural phenomena overnight and creating short-term spikes that, in the strongest cases, become permanent new floors.
At Martin Oliva, we monitor secondary market performance across the world's leading auction platforms and grey market dealers to identify which references are demonstrating the most consistent appreciation. The ten timepieces below have been selected on one criterion only: their current market price relative to the price an authorised dealer would charge for the same watch new. Markups range from 132% to 173%. If you are considering a watch as an investment in 2026, this is where the data leads.
1. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5267/200A-001
The Aquanaut 5267 Travel Time Jumbo is among the most versatile complications Patek Philippe produces — a dual time zone display housed in the Aquanaut's distinctive tonneau-shaped case with embossed rubber strap. Released in limited steel production, the 5267/200A-001 attracts both travellers who wear it and collectors who understand that a steel Patek with complications has only one direction of travel on the secondary market. The 5267 measures 44.6mm across and is powered by the calibre 324 S C FUS — a self-winding movement with a 45-hour power reserve and dedicated day and night indicators for both time zones. Its jumbo case size, paired with the Aquanaut's signature embossed rubber strap, gives the 5267 a presence on the wrist that no other travel-time complication in the Patek catalogue can match.
Retail Price £17,150
Market Price £39,900
Markup +132%
2. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5968A-001
The 5968A is the only Aquanaut to carry a full flyback chronograph — a complication that allows the timer to be reset and restarted instantly with a single pusher. In steel, at a price point well below comparable complications from the Nautilus family, the 5968A occupies a rare position: it is both technically exceptional and aesthetically cohesive with the Aquanaut's robust sports identity. Secondary market demand reflects this unique combination. Powered by the calibre CH 28-520 C FUS, the 5968A houses one of Patek's most sophisticated in-house movements, featuring a column wheel mechanism and horizontal clutch for precision chronograph engagement. The 42.2mm steel case and black dial with blue Arabic numerals create a visual identity that is immediately recognisable as an Aquanaut, yet technically without peer in the sports chronograph segment.
Retail Price £43,100
Market Price £100,750
Markup +135%
3. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15407ST.OO.1220ST.02
The Royal Oak 15407ST is the large-format, ultra-thin expression of Genta's masterpiece — a 41mm steel case housing the manual-wind calibre 5133, one of the most technically refined movements AP produces. The blue dial with white gold applied hour markers is among the most striking dial configurations in the Royal Oak collection. In a market where Royal Oak availability at retail is effectively nil, the 15407's scarcity at the high-complications tier makes it particularly compelling. The calibre 5133 movement achieves a remarkable 2.09mm thickness, making it one of the thinnest self-winding movements AP has ever produced for the Royal Oak case. Its 65-hour power reserve and 22 jewels speak to the depth of engineering invested in what appears, from the outside, to be a deceptively restrained watch.
Retail Price £58,800
Market Price £140,100
Markup +138%
4. Patek Philippe Nautilus 5712/1R-001
The Nautilus 5712 in rose gold represents the confluence of two worlds: the sports watch silhouette that made the Nautilus legendary, and the dress watch complications that define Patek Philippe's reputation for horological depth. The moon phase and power reserve indicators on the brown dial create a piece that functions equally at a board meeting and a yacht club. Discontinued and now increasingly rare, the rose gold 5712/1R commands premiums that only intensify with time. Powered by the calibre 240 PS IRM C LU — one of Patek's most accomplished ultra-slim movements — the 5712/1R packs moon phase, power reserve, and instantaneous date into a case just 8.9mm thick. The warm brown dial, exclusive to the rose gold reference, was discontinued alongside the watch itself, ensuring that no new examples will ever enter the market and that every existing piece carries the full weight of that finality.
Retail Price £66,150 discontinued
Market Price £159,900
Markup +142%
5. Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 "Turquoise" (Ref. 124300)
The Rolex Oyster Perpetual 41 with turquoise dial is one of the most remarkable investment stories in the current market. A simple three-hand watch with no complication, no precious metal, and a retail price accessible to first-time buyers — and yet it commands a 146% premium on the secondary market. The turquoise dial's immediate visual impact and its cultural association with Tiffany's iconic colour palette turned the 124300 into a phenomenon. For investors, it offers the best markup-per-pound-spent of any watch on this list. Powered by the calibre 3230 — featuring Rolex's Chronergy escapement and a 70-hour power reserve — the 124300 combines contemporary engineering with a dial colour that has become one of the most photographed in modern watchmaking. Its 41mm Oyster case in Oystersteel is water-resistant to 100 metres, making it a genuinely practical instrument that happens to carry one of the most culturally loaded dials Rolex has ever produced.
Retail Price £5,000
Market Price £12,300
Markup +146%
6. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5167A-001
The 5167A is the benchmark steel Aquanaut — the reference that established the model's collector credentials and continues to anchor its secondary market prestige. Its black embossed dial and integrated rubber strap have aged beautifully over the model's production run, attracting new buyers as the Nautilus has moved beyond reach for most collectors. Patek Philippe's decision not to increase production in response to demand ensures the 5167A's secondary market position remains structurally supported. The watch is powered by the calibre 324 S C, a self-winding movement running at 28,800 vibrations per hour with a 45-hour power reserve — robust enough for daily wear, precise enough for a manufacture of Patek's standing. Its 40mm diameter sits at the sweet spot between sport and elegance, and the tropical rubber strap engineered to match the case's tolerances has become one of the most imitated designs in contemporary watchmaking.
Retail Price £19,050
Market Price £48,500
Markup +154%
7. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5261R
The 5261R is Patek Philippe's Advanced Research Aquanaut in rose gold — a limited production piece that exists at the frontier of the brand's horological experimentation. Its flex-hinge lugs, developed through Patek's Advanced Research programme, represent a genuine technical innovation in case architecture. Rose gold Advanced Research Aquanauts are produced in extremely limited numbers and rarely surface on the secondary market, which is precisely what drives their sustained premium. The flex-hinge lug system eliminates the traditional articulation point between case and bracelet, resulting in a continuous curvature that sits more naturally on the wrist and reduces the transmission of external shock to the movement. Fewer than 500 examples of the 5261R are believed to have been produced across all dial configurations, placing it among the rarest wearable complications in Patek's recent catalogue.
Retail Price £49,100 limited edition
Market Price £125,250
Markup +155%
8. Patek Philippe Aquanaut 5267/200A-010
Released to mark the Aquanaut's 25th anniversary in 2022, the 5267/200A-010 carries the Travel Time complication in a commemorative configuration that adds the collectibility of a milestone edition to the already strong fundamentals of the 5267 reference. Anniversary editions from Patek Philippe have a consistent record of outperforming their standard-production counterparts on the secondary market, and the 5267/200A-010 is following exactly that pattern. The watch features a unique khaki green dial — a departure from any standard 5267 configuration — that immediately distinguishes it as a commemorative piece worthy of dedicated collector attention. Allocation was handled entirely through authorised dealers with minimal public announcement, ensuring that demand vastly outpaced availability from the moment of release.
Retail Price £17,150 anniversary edition
Market Price £44,350
Markup +159%
9. Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15416CE.OO.1225CE.01
The ceramic Royal Oak 15416CE is among the rarest configurations in the entire Royal Oak catalogue. Grey ceramic — used for both the case and the fully integrated bracelet — is extraordinarily difficult to produce at the tolerances AP demands, which limits output further beyond the already constrained standard steel references. The material's absolute scratch resistance, combined with its weight and visual distinctiveness, has established a loyal collector base willing to pay significant premiums for what is effectively a one-of-a-kind material proposition within the Royal Oak family. The grey ceramic is produced through a sintering process exceeding 1,400°C, and its hardness — ranking 9 on the Mohs scale — means every surface finish must be achieved with diamond-tipped tooling, adding significantly to production time and cost. Powering the 41mm case is the calibre 3120, AP's in-house automatic movement with a 60-hour power reserve, visible through an exhibition caseback that is itself crafted entirely in ceramic.
Retail Price £77,850
Market Price £203,100
Markup +161%
10. Patek Philippe Cubitus 5821/1A-001
Unveiled in 2023, the Cubitus is Patek Philippe's first entirely new watch family in over two decades — a bold square-cushion case design that immediately polarised collectors and equally immediately sold out at every authorised dealer worldwide. The olive green dial and steel case of the 5821/1A-001 have become one of the defining visual statements of contemporary watchmaking. With the highest markup of any watch on this list and production tightly controlled by Patek's characteristic restraint, the Cubitus is already establishing itself as the defining reference of the 2020s. The case measures 45mm across its diagonal at just 8.2mm in height — a geometry that required entirely new tooling and case-making techniques at Patek's Geneva workshops. Inside sits the calibre 26-330 S C, an ultra-slim self-winding movement featuring a peripheral rotor that preserves full dial legibility by avoiding the central rotor configuration found in most automatic watches.
Retail Price £31,750
Market Price £86,800
Markup +173%
What These Watches Have in Common
Every reference above shares the same investment fundamentals: they come from manufactures — Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet — that have managed output with extraordinary discipline over decades, creating a structural gap between supply and demand that no secondary market correction has closed. When broader market conditions soften, these references correct less. When sentiment improves, they recover faster. That asymmetry is the core of the investment case.
Condition and provenance remain critical. Full box and papers can add 20–30% to any of the prices shown above. Factory-original dials, unpolished cases, and complete service records compound the premium further. If you are purchasing on the secondary market, these details are worth verifying before any transaction.
At Martin Oliva, we bring the same standard of expertise to fine timepieces as we do to our bespoke engagement ring commissions. If you would like guidance on acquiring any of the watches featured in this guide, or wish to discuss how horological investment complements a wider portfolio of fine jewellery, our team is available to advise.
